First off, let me introduce the readership of Chicago Sports Noise to today's guest bloggers. Unlike ESPN's Chris Mortensen, these guys know a thing or two about football. Chris Fehrenbach was the self proclaimed "best route runner in Waukesha county", Ryan Agnew was a hard-hitting high school safety out of the Steve Atwater school of helmet first hits, and Andy Galati...well, I just promise you he looks more like a football player than John Clayton. When reading this blog, keep in mind that 2 out of the 3 writers featured in this piece are die hard Packer fans with Brett Favre tattoos (I wish I had a link to support this, hand to the bible--this is true). So, lets just say that their skin grafts and their hearts are in different places this season. Without further ado, here is the NFC North preview blog from 3 of the biggest stat dorks I know, but also 3 of the most devoted, loyal, and passionate sports fans I have ever met. Thanks a lot guys, the floor is yours.
Green Bay Packers
Offense: This is one of the most explosive offenses in football--bar none. Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback in the history of the NFL to surpass 4,000 yards in his first two years as a starter (Akili Smith was damn close). He has weapons from top to bottom at his disposal. Greg Jennings has emerged into a top tier wide receiver and the ageless Donald Driver can still get it done. The wild card is Ryan Grant, have never been a huge Ryan Grant fan, but he has put together a couple of 1,000 yard seasons and keeps the defense honest (unless OJ is on the opposing D, god knows that dude's guilty) with a pass first offense. Jermichael Finley, who believe it or not, is not the son of former Wisconsin Badger legend, Michael Finley, is a great young talent who has emerged as one of Rodgers favorite targets. Look to see Finley put up some scary numbers for a tight-end this season. But, to go along with their starters, they have a good mix of reserves that have positively contributed in past seasons. Players such as James Jones, Jordy Nelson, and Donald Lee give the Packers depth. Overall, when Rodgers gets in a rhythm, he is freakishly productive, and look for him to have another big year.
The key for this offense to click on all cylinders is the O-line. They had a disastrous start to the year last year and almost got Aaron Rodgers killed, but they came together and played well down the stretch. If they can stay healthy and keep Rodgers off the IR and out of a wheelchair, the Packers should definitely be favored to win the NFC North.
Defense:Last year the Pack had the number two ranked defense in the NFL, but that number can definitely be deceptive. Ben "No means NO" Roethlisberger put up half a G on the pack and Kurt Warner lit em up for over 2 Jackson's and a Hamilton (50)in points. The secondary is the big question mark for the Green and Gold on D. With Al Harris rehabbing from knee surgery, there are a lot of unproven players that need to step up on the big stage. The Packers D definitely needs Nick Collins to stay healthy. Additionally, Chuck Woodson had a career year last season and returned to the freak athlete ball-hawk he was when he stole the Heisman at Michigan. Another name to keep your eye on is Clay Matthews, who is transitioning into his second year coming off a Pro-Bowl season. The overall key to the defense is getting pressure on the passer. Much like the Vikings do such a phenomenal job of that, the Pack are the opposite as they put a lot of pressure on the secondary in coverage. Look for these players to buy into the second year of Dom Capers system and show serious signs of improvement--lending them to be, once again, the best team in the NFC North.
Special Teams: The special teams in Green Bay weren't very good last year--needless to say, they were Special Ed. They rolled the dice on undrafted rookie Sam Shields from the U, but he is diagnosed with Petey Jones syndrome and can't hold onto the football. Right now, Jordy Nelson is the designated return man. But, if his receiving duties increase, look for the Packers to make a switch while coincidentally listening to the Will Smith song, "Switch". Mason Crosby will be doing the kicking duties and is looking for a bounceback season after he shanked some late-season kicks badly in 2009. All in all, the Packers won't be relying on their special teams to win them any games--they are just hoping they don't lose any.
Coaching:Mike McCarthy is looking to garner his first playoff win in the post-Brett Favre era. McCarthy has done a good job since coming to Green Bay. The team took a step backwards in Rodgers first year as a starter, but they rebounded very well last year by finishing 11-5 and losing in the wild card round to Kurt Warner, his wife, his bible, and the Arizona Cardinals. McCarthy has taken a bit of criticism in allowing his players to commit too many penalties, and sex scandals in the Wisconsin Dells, but he has done a great job grooming Aaron Rodgers into superstardom (now we just have to hope someone grooms his facial hair). Capers is a proven winner in the 3-4 defensive scheme, and in his second year will be looking to get this defense even tougher. Overall, McCarthy has done a good job in Green Bay, leading them to the playoffs in 2 of the last 3 seasons.
Prediction: Expectations are as high as a teenager at a Phish concert this year in Titletown. They have a great nucleus mixed with experience and youth. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL with playmakers (not the ESPN TV series) around him. There are some question marks on defense and special teams but the Pack are geared up for a push at the NFC North crown and returning the Lombardi Trophy to its rightful owner--Titletown USA.
Record: 12-4
Best Case: 13-3
Worst Case: 11-5
Minnesota Vikings
Offense: The Vikings offense is extremely explosive, they have weapons all over the place, oh, and not to mention arguably the best running back in the league. Anywhere Brett goes, he seems to make the players around him better and pushes people to their absolute potential. But, it has been a rocky off-season and training camp for the Vikes. Brett is coming off ankle surgery and is entering his 84th season as an NFL quarterback, who knows if he can withstand another grueling 16 game season, again. His favorite weapons from a year ago are already becoming lost in the barren wasteland that is Minnesota. Sydney Rice will be out the first 6 games of the season with a hip injury and Percy Harvin's head injury, and marijuana intake will be monitored closely throughout the year. The NFL has been very cautious with head injuries, as they should, so who knows how much time or prescriptions for Excedrin Percy will miss. I will tell you this much, Brett will not put together the type of 40 year-old superhero season he did a year ago, especially if his two favorite weapons will be in and out of the lineup all season. Also, AP isn't off to the most fortuitous of starts himself. He passed on the team's offseason program and minicamp and dually had to miss a couple weeks with a strained hammy. This offense needs to get healthy, and stay healthy to duplicate any of the numbers they put together a season ago. Moreover, losing Chester Taylor will hurt the Vikings more than those ponytail, helmet, horn dressed idiots think. He was a stable and effective 3rd down back and was also an exceptional blocker. On the flip side, with Taylor's departure comes a more every-down AP, and let's face it--he is a man amongst boys. His ability to break tackles and turn negative into positive yardage is remarkable. I would not want to be the cornerback or safety that is assigned with the daunting task of covering AP (even if it is an island called "Revis"). If he can stay out of Childress' doghouse by securing the ball, he could put up some big, MVP-like numbers.
Defense:Last year, the Vikes had one of the best defenses in the entire NFL, and that shouldn't change much in 2010. They get after the QB better than any team in the league and that D is the reason they will be close in nearly every game this year. Their front 7 do a great job of controlling the game and keep the offense rhythmless like a white kid on the dancefloor at a suburban wedding. In their last preseason game, their second string unit forced 4 fumlbles, had 3 sacks, and had 7 tackles for loss, not to mention a goal line stand, so they are extraordinarily deep. What is essential for the Vikings is consistently putting pressure on the QB and collapsing the pocket. It is too tough for cornerbacks to hold man coverage with receivers, running backs, and tight-ends (who are built like wide-outs). I don't care if you have Austin Scott out there slinging seeds to receivers, if you have time, you can get the job done. If the Vikings D has a weakness going into the season, it is the maturity of their secondary. They don't have the same veterans against the pass who can recognize disguised coverages like Minnesotans recognize camo in woods of Mankato. These fresh-faced DB's and safeties are going to be tested early and often in a division that boasts some high-caliber receiving targets like Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Devin Hester, and Donald Driver. But, once again, if their front 7 can control the game like they did a season ago, they will once again be a stingy bunch.
Special Teams:The Vikes Special Teams have a few loose ends heading into 2010. They haven't figured out who they want returning punts yet. B squared is going to get the first crack at it, but he has had a busy offseason running around VH1 with Ochocinco. They also had Darius Reynaud (I know, WHO????) back there in the preseason, but he got shipped off to the Giants last week for a few nude photos of Eli Manning's girlfriend. But, having a trustworthy kicker is the Special Teams key in the NFL, and the Vikings have one of the best in Ryan Longwell.
Coaching:I think the front office in Minnesota has done a very good job getting young talent to the twin cities. They, like the Packers, have a great mix of veterans and youth filling out their depth chart. On the other hand, I think Childress is an idiot, so you can decide. Enough said.
Prediction:It's September again and the Minnesota faithful are digging through their closets to find ridiculous home game attire, kissing their sisters, and heading to the worst venue in pro sports anxiously awaiting the first home game. Quick question Minnesotans: when was your last superbowl ring? Oh well, the T-Wolves look tough next year. Ok, I'll stop. The Vikings were one play away from the Superbowl last year and sent 9 guys (9 times, Mrs. Bueller) to the Pro-Bowl. They have one of the greats of all-time and a living legend under center, and the hardest, most punishing runner in the NFL in their backfield. They are a very talented team with a plethora of big names. On paper, you may want to crown them with the NFC North title before the season starts. But, lets not count our teeth before they come in, right Minnesota? Look for the Vikings to finish 2nd in the division, but still grabbing a Wild Card spot.
Record: 10-6
Best Case: 12-4
Worst Case: 9-7
Chicago Bears
Offense: The 2009 Bears offense was a pure disaster. It was as disoriented and misplaced as a college dormroom on a Sunday morning. After giving up three draft picks (2009 1st, 2010 1st, 2010 3rd)for Jay Cutler, it turned out that QB Kyle Orton, who they 'threw in' the trade, had a better season than Cutler. They ranked 23rd overall in offense (23rd pass, 29th rush) and left Chicago's fans frustrated in the process. They had a very below average and aging offensive line who couldn't protect their teenage daughters, let alone an NFL QB. They had virtually no legitimate targets for Cutler to throw to. On a personal level, Cutler led the NFL in INT's with 26 and Matt Forte averaged an abysmal 3.6 YPC. But that was last year. This year, the Bears once again have an ineffective and dinosaur-like offensive line, a turnover prone QB and no true offensive weapons in sight. Their best passing threat is Greg Olsen, but who knows how Mike Martz will involve him in the offense this year? Quite frankly, their receiving core is a mess and Bears management have recruited receivers based on speed alone. Will Cutler throw more interceptions than calories in a chili dog again this year? Not a chance. Still, I just don't know how it can get much better. Forte is a good and athletic back who can catch the ball well out of the backfield. Chester Taylor is a great compliment to the Bears backfield and should increase 3rd down efficiency. However, the overall lack of weapons on the offensive side of the ball will prevent any NFL defense from ever batting an eyelash.
Defense:The Bears D wasn't awful last year, but it sure wasn't anything to write home about (why would I write home anyways? I have a cell phone, I HAVE A JOB, I AM ENGAGED!). They ranked 17th in total defense after finishing 13th against the pass and 20th against the run. They only had 35 sacks and 13 INT's forced the entire year. As they have been in years past, the Bears were extremely good at stripping the football. All in all, the Bears defense wasn't bad last season, it was easily their best unit, they just weren't the turnover causing, reek havoc, monsters of the midway that they were in the mid 2000's. This season, they won't match those swarming defenses like the ones when Urlacher was in his prime, but with the addition of Julius Peppers, they could become a top-10 Defense once again. With a healthy Tommie Harris in the middle and Peppers coming off the end like a freight train, the Bears have a defensive line with two Pro-Bowl quality players. The Bears secondary is weak, that is why the health of Peppers, Harris and Urlacher is so vital to the success of this defense, and ultimately the Chicago Bears as a franchise. If all these guys can find a way to bring it every week and Peanut Tillman (what is this morons real first name?) can stay within 5 yards of someone, the Bears could have a top 10 D that could vaguely look like the the dominant units of years past.
Special Teams:Under Lovie Smith, the Chicago Bears have always had one of the best special teams units in the NFL and not much should change this season. Brad Maynard is a solid punter and Robbie Gould can split the uprights with the best of em. And Devin Hester, although not a fraction as dangerous as he was a couple of years ago, is still one of the fastest, and most illiterate players in the league. The special teams unit of the Bears is well coached, and is usually good for a few TD's throughout the season. Once again, the Bears should be in the top tier of the league's special teams squads with very good return men, coverage units, and capable kickers and punters.
Coaching:Lovie Smith is on the hot seat, no doubt about it--you can't possibly sugar coat it any more than this. If the Bears don't make the playoffs, you can book his flight at O'Hare and make him pound Vodka Tonics in some airport bar until he passes out. Even though he was AP coach of the year in 2005, and led the Bears (and Rex Grossman!!!!) to the Super Bowl in 2006, he has done little since. In today's NFL, coaches who haven't done anything for their squads lately likely are shown the door rather quickly.
Prediction: The Bears face a tough schedule in 2010 as they square off against the NFC East (Dallas, NYG, Philly, and the Skins) and the AFC East (Pats, NYJ, Fins, and the lowly Buffalo Bills). They will face the Packers and Vikings twice each and should equate (barring a miracle) 4 losses. They finished 7-9 in 2009, they added a force in Julius Peppers, but did little to improve their o-line and secondary. The Bears can expect to finish 3rd place in the division with a 7-9 record.
Record: 7-9
Best Case: 8-8
Worst Case: 6-10
Detroit Lions
Offense:You can't help but look at the Lion's roster and see improvement. But, that is probably because they literally couldn't get any worse. They have their big arm in Stafford, even though he's fat, FAT! They have their big-play wideout who spreads the field with both his height and speed, but can also make plays after the catch. The Lions also haven't had a 1,000 yd. rusher since Barry Sanders!! Just kidding, but seriously, Kevin Jones was their last one in 2004. The Lions backfield is once again full of uncertainties, but on paper it looks like they have some weapons. Kevin Jones was a "big-play" back out of UCF but is coming off an ACL tear. Jahvid Best is supposedly the "most electric player on the field" during camp but is just a rookie and was injury prone in his senior season at Cal. The O line is painfully average. Their center/leader is Dominic Raiola, who last year gave up fewer sacks than his last name has vowels. Nonetheless, a lineman from the Lions (nice alliteration) hasn't made the Pro-Bowl since 1997, and this year shouldn't be much different.
Defense:The Lions defensive unit was just plain BAD last year. But again, it looks like they are getting the right pieces in the right places..well, sort of. Due to their horrific play last year, The Lions 'won' the #2 pick in the draft and chose (obvious) the manchild that is Ndamukong Suh. Combine that with a trade for Corey Williams and the signing of Kyle Vanden Bosch and I'd say the D-line should do pretty well. The secondary is another story. Last year, their secondary was dead last in almost every statistical category. Although only one player is returning from that crew, the new guys are yet to play together as a unit. There might be some growing pains in the secondary, but since the Lions can't possibly be seen as contenders, my guess is that they choose to work (or suffer) through it instead of signing a veteran free agent.
Special Teams:All I know about the Lions special teams unit is that Jason Hanson has been kicking field goals since the Reagan campaign. Although he had minor knee surgery in the offseason and had his worst kicking season since 2001 a year ago, both he, and the NFL's worst facemask are ready for a bounce-back year. The Lions offense should put up more points this year, so if you need a 3rd kicker on your fantasy roster...Jason Hanson is a steal.
Coaching:You're not going to believe this, but once again, there's nowhere to go but up for this franchise. They ran the table in reverse in 2008, they haven't won the division since 1993 when Scott Mitchell and Herman Moore were young, and they haven't made the playoffs since 1999. They are the only team in the history of the NFL to win the coin toss and elect to play defense. The list goes on. They have had some very questionable--well, terrible draft picks in the early 2000's. Joey Harrington started the trend, but was followed by Charles Rogers and the Williams twins, who were all terrible draft picks, and even worse NFL players. Roy Williams runs too much like Robo-Cop and could never get behind the secondary and Mike Williams career fell off the face of the Earth. They have turned it around in recent years with Stafford, Pettigrew, Levy, Suh, and Best. If this onslaught of young and talented players continue to improve, the Lions wont be 'winning' any more lottery picks in the NFL draft.
Prediction:The Lions are definitely moving in the right direction, but won't be able to see the upstairs of the NFC North for a few years now as they have been summoned to the basement like a college kid returning home for Thanksgiving break. They do have some 'sneaky' talent and should steal some games from teams far more talented than they. Good days are on the horizon for the Lions. With that being said,they definitely won't be leaving home for the playoffs.
Record: 6-10
Best Case: 8-8
Worst Case: 5-11
FINAL PREDICTIONS:
PACKERS
VIKINGS
BEARS
LIONS
As for pick of the day, Pulse Man did it again last night as Joey Votto came through with an RBI and made it 8 straight. Tonight, with football spirit in full bloom, he likes the under on Reggie Bush's total rushing and receiving yards combined which is set at 60 1/2. His heads just as empty as his college trophy case now. Little known fact: The Pulse Man once bet that Reggie and Kim Kardashian (Ray J's ex) would be engaged by July 31st if the Saints won the Super Bowl. Needless to say, he lost $1.80 the hard way.
Pick of the Day: Reggie Bush combined rushing/receiving yds. 60 1/2- UNDER (-110)
Record: (18-11-0)
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